Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions
The Cincinnati Reds (26-49) will host the Atlanta Braves (44-33) at Great American Ballpark for a 3-game series with Friday's first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Braves vs. Redsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied at 2 games apiece as the teams split their season-opening series April 7-10.
The Braves are coming off a 14-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, but did manage to win 2 of their 3 in the City of Brotherly Love. Atlanta is 10-3 over its last 4 road series which included sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
The Reds also suffered an embarrassing defeat Thursday on the road, losing 15-7 to the Cubs. They'll return home where they have lost 8 straight games. Cincinnati is 3-10 over its last 13.
Braves at Reds projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Mike Minor
Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.8K/9 in 94 1/3 IP.
- Was ranked the 23rd-best pitcher in MLB to start the season and has not disappointed. He ended 2020 with a 7-0 record and was 14-7 last season.
- Has given up more than 2 ER in just 1 of his last 7 starts, but did struggle against Cincinnati in the season opener (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K).
Minor (1-4, 7.71 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.
- Walks are up and strikes are down from last season for the 34-year-old, who is allowing 10.9 hits per 9 IP as well.
- Minor has yet to have a game with a sub-6 ERA.
Braves at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Reds +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Braves -2.5 (-105) | Reds +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 9.5 (O: +107 | U: -115)
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Braves at Reds picks and predictions
Braves 6, Reds 4
The Braves have an ace on the mound, and the Reds cannot say the same. Everything is pointing to Atlanta coming out on top, but with the money line at -260, there's little value here.
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LEAN REDS +2.5 (-115).
While Fried has had a good season on the mount, he had 5 earned runs against Cincinnati to start the season, and the strikeout-heavy pitcher (ranking 18th in the majors) will actually face a team sitting 17th in strikeouts.
Atlanta has also beaten a team by 3 or more runs just once in their last 10 games. The Reds have the 4th-best home batting average which drops to 25th on the road, so they've been far better at GABP.
The Braves sport the better player on the mound, but it's not a bet they will win by 3-plus runs.
BET OVER 9.5 (-107).
The Reds aren't the worst team in the NL because they can't score. Both the Reds and the Braves, 15th and 7th respectively, rank in the top half of the league in runs.
Cincinnati has gone over this total in 7 of its last 9 games. With Minor on the mound, although Atlanta has hit this total in just 2 of its last 7, expect the Braves to abuse the aging left-handed pitcher.
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