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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and best bets

Geoff Clark
USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Denver Nuggets (43-23) face the Northwest division rival Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24) Monday, at 4 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Nuggets-Thunder NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Nuggets vs. Thunder: Key injuries

Nuggets

  • SG Gary Harris (hip) out
  • SG Will Barton (knee) out
  • PG Jamal Murray (hamstring) questionable

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Nuggets vs. Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Thunder 112, Nuggets 108

Moneyline (ML)

The Nuggets (+200) got rolled by the Miami Heat, 125-105, this past Saturday. Part of the reason was that they were without three starters (all of whom are listed on Monday's injury report).

The Thunder (-250) come into this contest after beating up on the Utah Jazz, 110-94. Oklahoma City's team effort produced six double-digit scorers in the contest.

Denver's injuries are particularly concerning in this matchup because it affects the backcourt and three of the Thunder's top-4 scorers are guards. The market is betting the Thunder heavy and I think the market is right. Once again, it doesn't pay to bet expensive NBA regular-season favorites.

PASS ON THE MONEYLINE.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Thunder to win would return a profit of just $4.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

While the Nuggets +6.5 (-110) got boat raced by the Heat in their last game, the Thunder don't have as explosive of an offense as the Heat. Oklahoma City is 13th in offensive efficiency, 18th in points per game and 16th in three-point percentage.

The last time either team was favored by six or more points was back in 2018 and the Nuggets won outright. The market has bet the spread up to Thunder -6 (-110) and I think that's too many points.

Nuggets C Nikola Jokić wore out Thunder C Steven Adams in both Nuggets-Thunder games this season, combining for 60 points and 21 rebounds in those games. Also, Denver is 10-1 against the spread in the last 11 games against Oklahoma City.

BET NUGGETS +6.5 (-110). Tip: Maybe wait until as close to tip-off as you can. The line opened at Nuggets +4.5 and has been bet all the way up. You might get a full touchdown by tip-off.

Over/Under (O/U)

I am leaning toward UNDER 220.5 (-110) because we got the Nuggets +6.5 and a low-scoring game is a more realistic outcome if our ATS handicap is correct. Also, their combined Over/Under record is 61-68-2 in 2019-20.

The Nuggets and Thunder play a more methodical style of basketball anyway. Denver has the second-slowest pace in the NBA and the Thunder are ranked 24th in pace.

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