FARMINGTON — There's little chance of storms dampening the rocket's red glare for Farmington's Fourth of July.

Independence Day is likely to bring warm and mostly dry skies in the area, with high temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s.

The National Weather Service forecasts a 10-percent chance of rain, but any precipitation should be light, said Jason Frazier, an Albuquerque-based meteorologist.

Recent rains were part of a "reverse monsoonal-type flow" that moved north to south, he said.

"This will kind of taper off as we get to July Fourth," Frazier said.

Monsoon season has not begun in earnest, Frazier said. Typically, monsoons move south to north. Monsoon season begins on average around July 14, he said.

Frazier said the recent moisture provides some optimism that the upcoming monsoon season will bring some much-needed rainfall.

"It actually gives us hope we'll do a little better than we have in the past couple of monsoon seasons," he said.

New Mexico's past 12 months are the driest on record going back to 1895, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. San Juan County is listed in "extreme" drought. Some areas of New Mexico are in the worst category, "exceptional" drought.

Slightly cooler temperatures and calmer winds could also help firefighters get a handle on the West Fork Complex fires north of Pagosa Springs, Colo. The fire was at 93,776 acres Monday. That was a revised estimate following an overflight, said Laura McConnell, public information officer for the fire management team.

Cool temperatures and cloud cover led to relatively calm fire behavior Monday, McConnell said.

"There are areas of the fire where it hasn't moved in a few days, but there are still some areas of concern," she said.

The fire is 4-percent contained, with 1,508 personnel battling it.

The communities of South Fork and Wagon Wheel Gap continue to be threatened, according to the National Fire Information Center. U.S. Highway 160 through Wolf Creek Pass is now fully open.

Firefighters were able to keep another fire, the Windy Pass Fire, away from Wolf Creek Ski Area. That fire is now contained.

"We feel very lucky about that," Wolf Creek spokeswoman Rosanne Haidorfer-Pitcher said. "The firefighters did a great job."

Chuck Slothower covers business for The Daily Times. He can be reached at 505-564-4638 and cslothower@daily-times.com. Follow him @Dtchuck on Twitter.