For those who scan the skies for ducks at Saturday's start of Colorado's second, and most important, duck segment, the wing beats drifting down the flyway appear to carry good news — more ducks than a year ago, including 10 percent more mallards, along with satisfactory overall nesting conditions.

But raw numbers aren't always the most important element in this annual aerial march of the ducks. Improved populations are good. Favorable migratory patterns are even better.

As the accompanying chart reveals, North American duck numbers increased 13 percent to slightly more than 42 million, largely the result of favorable precipitation that boosted the May pond count in most of the Canadian prairie provinces. The

The South Platte will be the subject of Colorado's most intensive hunting activity, and scientific surveys as well. ( Charlie Meyers, The Denver Post )
north-central U.S. fared even better.

But a closer examination shows leaner prospects for the zone along the edge of the Rockies that provides much of the migration for eastern Colorado. Production in Alberta's pothole country diminished considerably, particularly among those species that provide most activity: mallard, gadwall, wigeon and both types of teal, although the latter largely will have moved south by now.

Draw a directional arrow down along the Rocky Mountain Front, and what evolved into a pattern over the past decade becomes clear.

But other trends indicate a likelihood of better hunting, provided weather patterns fall into line. Southern Saskatchewan has improved dramatically, eastern Montana and the

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western Dakotas even more. This U.S. portion of the duck factory registered a 117 percent gain over a year ago, 53 percent above the long-term average.

Recent banding studies reveal a great majority of birds harvested in eastern Colorado originated in states to the north; only 20 percent came from Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan.

Moreover, biologists expressed concern over statistics suggesting that U.S. prairie land actually produced more ducks than its Canadian counterpart.

The worry is that Canada still holds a preponderance of the historic habitat. The overall continental duck condition is better when the Canadian potholes receive a strong share of water.

Purely from a standpoint of local hunting prospects, Jim Gammonley, primary waterfowl biologist with the Colorado Division of Wildlife, notes a troubling recent shift farther east toward Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. The agency hopes to reverse this trend with programs to improve autumn and winter habitat.

These are projects that take time: years, decades.

"Meanwhile, we're in a pattern of flip- flops," Gammonley observed. "Beginning in the mid-'90s, we had good numbers in the northern prairie states. Then water patterns shifted favorably toward the Canadian provinces. Now we're back to the Dakotas and Montana again."

Charlie Meyers, The Denver Post

Duck hunting

CENTRAL FLYWAY

Bag limits: Six, up to 5 of which may be mallard, but no more than 2 females. No more than 1 pintail, 1 canvasback, 2 redhead, 3 wood ducks and 2 scaup. Possession limit 2 daily bags.

Eastern Plains Zone: East of I-25, also El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano and Las Animas counties. Nov. 7-Jan. 24.

Mountain/Foothills Zone: West of I-25, east of Continental Divide, except El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano and Las Animas counties. Through Nov. 30; Dec.19-Jan. 24.

PACIFIC FLYWAY

Bag limits: Seven in aggregate. No more than 2 female mallard, 2 pintails, 1 canvasback, 2 redhead, 3 scaup. Possession limit 2 daily bags.Duck populations

North American duck breeding population estimates for 2009, in thousands, with comparisons to previous years: